Applied Chemical Engineering

Optimization Model for Climatic Change Impact on the Water Quality of Al-Hilla River, Iraq

Haibet Hassan Dinar

Atheer Zaki Al-Qaisi

Water Resources and Management Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Al-Qasim Green University, Babylon 51013, Iraq

Hadeel Kareem Jasim

Water Resources and Management Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Al-Qasim Green University, Babylon 51013, Iraq

DOI: https://doi.org/10.59429/ace.v7i3.5554

---

Abstract

This study presents an advanced optimization model to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in the Al-Hilla River. To reduce uncertainties associated with climate change projections and quantify the river's water quality response, a novel model of the river system is developed, with the objective function integrated into optimization theory. Water quality simulations for different regions of the river system are performed using the QUAL2K model, while the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) method is applied to optimize the model. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of temperature and DO variations on microbial populations and the self-purification capacity of the water body. The results indicate that all climate change scenarios lead to a decline in water quality, with significant reductions in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels, even under safe discharge conditions. The study demonstrates that the proposed technique can identify optimal solutions more efficiently, contributing to faster and more reliable decision-making in water quality management. Also, the findings reveal that both temperature and DO significantly influence microbial composition and self-purification processes, with higher temperatures and DO levels improving self-purification efficiency. These insights enhance our understanding of the complex interactions between environmental factors and water quality, offering a valuable foundation for future water management strategies aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change.

---

References

[1]. Ahmed S, Adnan M, Janssens D, Wets G. A personalized mobility-based intervention to promote pro-environmental travel behavior. Sustainable Cities and Society. 2020;62:102397.

[2]. Ishaque W, Tanvir R, Mukhtar M. Climate change and water crises in Pakistan: implications on water quality and health risks. Journal of Environmental and Public Health. 2022;2022(1):5484561

[3]. Babaee Tirkolaee E, Mahdavi I, Seyyed Esfahani MM, Weber G. A hybrid augmented ant colony optimization for the multi-trip capacitated arc routing problem under fuzzy demands for urban solid waste management. Waste Manag Res. 2020;38(2):156-172. doi: 10.1177/0734242X19865782.

[4]. Bayatavrkeshi M, Imteaz MA, Kisi O, Farahani M, Ghabaei M, Al-Janabi AMS, et al. Drought trends projection under future climate change scenarios for Iran region. PLoS One. 2023;18(11)

[5]. Alfatlawi TJ, Alsultani RA. Characterization of chloride penetration in hydraulic concrete structures exposed to different heads of seawater: Using hydraulic pressure tank. Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal. 2019 Jun 1;22(3):939-46. doi: 10.1016/j.jestch.2019.02.001.

[6]. Salahaldain Z, Naimi S, Alsultani R. Estimation and analysis of building costs using artificial intelligence support vector machine. Mathematical Modelling of Engineering Problems. 2023;10(2):405-11. doi: 10.18280/mmep.100203.

[7]. Alsultani R, Saber Q, Al-Saadi A, Mohammed O, Abed S, Naser R, Hussein A, Muslim F, Fadhil H, Karim I, Khassaf S. The impact of climate change on the reinforcement durability of concrete bridge structures. Open Civil Eng J. 2024;18. doi: 10.2174/0118741495337012240812105905.

[8]. Dessie BK, Aschale M, Polaine X, Melaku S, Alamirew T, Walsh CL, et al. An integrated approach for water quality assessment in African catchments based on physico-chemical and biological indicators. Sci Total Environ. 2024;908:168326.

[9]. Quevedo-Castro A, Bustos-Terrones YA, Bandala ER, Loaiza JG, Rangel-Peraza JG. Modeling the effect of climate change scenarios on water quality for tropical reservoirs. Journal of Environmental Management. 2022 Nov 15;322:116137

[10]. Salman JM, Hadi SJ, Mutaer AA. Spatial and temporal distribution of phytoplankton and some related physical and chemical properties in Al-Abasia river (Euphrates), Iraq. Int J Geol Earth Environ Sci. 2013;3(3):155-169.

[11]. Alsultani R, Karim IR, Khassaf SI. Dynamic response analysis of coastal piled bridge pier subjected to current, wave and earthquake actions with different structure orientations. International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials. 2023 Dec;17(1):1-5. doi: 10.1186/s40069-022-00561-5.

[12]. Thair JM, Imad AD, Riyadh AA. Experimental determination and numerical validation of the chloride penetration in cracked hydraulic concrete structures exposed to severe marine environment. In: IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering. 2018 Dec 1;454(1):012099. IOP Publishing.

[13]. Parmesan C, Morecroft MD, Trisurat Y. Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Doctoral dissertation, GIEC)

[14]. Skardi Mje, Afshar A, Saadatpour M, Solis SS. Hybrid ACO–ANN-based multi-objective simulation–optimization model for pollutant load control at basin scale. Environ Model Assess. 2015;20(1):29-39. doi: 10.1007/s10666-014-9413-7.

[15]. Trancoso R, Syktus J, Allan RP, Croke J, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Chadwick R. Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population. Nat Commun. 2024;15(1):483.

[16]. Shaik R. Uncertainty modeling for river water quality control. Doctoral dissertation. 2010.

[17]. Alfatiawi T, Mansori N, Alsultani A. Stability assessment of diaphragm cellular cofferdams subjected to severe hydro-structural conditions. Open Civil Eng J. 2020;14(1):44-55.

[18]. Hasan RF, Seyedi M, Alsultani R. Assessment of Haditha Dam surface area and catchment volume and its capacity to mitigate flood risks for sustainable development. Mathematical Modelling of Engineering Problems. 2024;11(7):1973-78. doi: 10.18280/mmep.110728.

[19]. Veal L. United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2021.

[20]. Yang W, Zhao Y, Wang D, Wu H, Lin A, He L. Using principal components analysis and IDW interpolation to determine spatial and temporal changes of surface water quality of Xin’anjiang River in Huangshan, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(8):2942.

[21]. Al-Kareem SA, ALKizwini RS. Statistical analysis for water quality index for Shatt-Al-Hilla river in Babel city. Water Pract Technol. 2022;17(2):567-586.

[22]. Yang K, Yu Z, Luo Y, Yang Y, Zhao L, Zhou X. Spatial and temporal variations in the relationship between lake water surface temperatures and water quality-A case study of Dianchi Lake. Sci Total Environ. 2018;624:859-871.

[23]. Saod WM, Rashid FA, Turki AM, Al-Taee MJM. Water quality indices for Euphrates River. Online J Vet Res. 2019;23(5):407-413.

[24]. Alsultani R, Karim IR, Khassaf SI. Mathematical formulation using experimental study of hydrodynamic forces acting on substructures of coastal pile foundation bridges during earthquakes: As a model of human bridge protection. Resmilitaris. 2022;12(2):6802-21.

[25]. Afan HA, Mohtar WHMW, Khaleel F, Kamil AH, Mansoor SS, Alsultani R, Ahmed AN, Sherif M, El-Shafie A. Data-driven water quality prediction for wastewater treatment plants. Heliyon. 2024;10(18). Doi: 10.2174/0118741495337012240812105905.

[26]. Avcı BC, Kesgin E, Atam M, Tan RI, Abdelkader M. Short-term climate change influence on surface water quality impacts from agricultural activities. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2023 Aug;30(38):89581-96

[27]. Bartlett JA, Dedekorkut-Howes A. Adaptation strategies for climate change impacts on water quality: a systematic review of the literature. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2023 Mar 1;14(3):651-75

[28]. Alsultani R, Khassaf SI. Nonlinear dynamic response analysis of coastal pile foundation bridge pier subjected to current, wave and earthquake actions: As a model of civilian life. Resmilitaris. 2022 Nov 12;12(2):6133-48.

[29]. Yuan W, Liu Q, Song S, Lu Y, Yang S, Fang Z, Shi Z. A climate-water quality assessment framework for quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to water quality variations. Journal of Environmental Management. 2023 May 1;333:117441

[30]. Kurniawan TA, Bandala ER, Othman MH, Goh HH, Anouzla A, Chew KW, Aziz F, Al-Hazmi HE, Nisa'ul Khoir A. Implications of climate change on water quality and sanitation in climate hotspot locations: a case study in Indonesia. Water Supply. 2024 Feb 1;24(2):517-42.

[31]. Al-Delewy AHA, Ali ST, Othman NY. Hydraulic control of Shatt Al-Hilla within Hilla City. J Babylon Univ. 2006.

[32]. Omran ZA, Othman NY, Saleh ZA. Steady flow analysis for Shatt Al-Hilla using HEC-RAS program. Int J Civil Eng Technol. 2018;9(6):524-533.

[33]. Gibson C, Jauffur S, Guo B, Frigon D. Activated sludge microbial community assembly: the role of influent microbial community immigration. Applied and Environmental Microbiology. 2024 Aug 21;90(8):e00598-24.

[34]. Muzhewe CR, Thakur A. Interactions between Land Use practices and Climate change on Water quality in India: A comprehensive review. InE3S Web of Conferences 2024 (Vol. 559, p. 01003). EDP Sciences.

[35]. Ding C, He J. Effect of antibiotics in the environment on microbial populations. Appl Microbiol Biotechnol. 2010;87:925-941.

[36]. Rajwa A, Bialik RJ, Rowiński PM. Dissolved oxygen and water temperature dynamics in lowland rivers over various timescales. J Hydrol Hydromech. 2015;63(4):353-363.

[37]. Tu J. Combined impact of climate and land use changes on streamflow and water quality in eastern Massachusetts, USA. Journal of Hydrology. 2009 Dec 30;379(3-4):268-83.

[38]. Tian P, Xu Z, Fan W, Lai H, Liu Y, Yang P, Yang Z. Exploring the effects of climate change and urban policies on lake water quality using remote sensing and explainable artificial intelligence. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2024 Oct 10;475:143649.

[39]. Zhu X, Zheng H, Zuo D, Pang Q, Xie L, Wang L, Xi JY, Tian LF, Wu J, Jiang W, Sun J. Effects of human activities and climate change on water quality and health risks of typical urban river in arid/semi-arid areas, a ten-year historical analysis. Environmental Science: Water Research & Technology. 2024.

[40]. Van Vliet MT, Thorslund J, Strokal M, Hofstra N, Flörke M, Ehalt Macedo H, Nkwasa A, Tang T, Kaushal SS, Kumar R, Van Griensven A. Global river water quality under climate change and hydroclimatic extremes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. 2023 Oct;4(10):687-702.